题 目：A stochastic SIRS epidemic model with infectious force under intervention strategies（ 一类具有行政干预的随机SIRS传染病模型研究 ）
报告人：王玮明 教授，温州大学应用数学研究所所长
时 间：2015年9月17日（周四）下午15:00-16:00
地 点：bat365在线平台报告厅
【报告内容简介】
In this talk, we extend a classical SIRS epidemic model with the infectious forces under intervention strategies from a deterministic framework to a stochastic differential equation (SDE) one through introducing random fluctuations. The value of our study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, by using the Markov semigroups theory, we prove that the reproduction number $R_0^S$ can be used to govern the stochastic dynamics of SDE model. If $R_0^S<1$, under mild extra conditions, the SDE system has a disease-free absorbing set which means the extinction of disease with probability one. If $R_0^S>1$, under mild extra conditions, it has an endemic stationary distribution which leads to the stochastic persistence of the disease. Epidemiologically, we find that random fluctuations can suppress disease outbreak, which can provide us some useful control strategies to regulate disease dynamics.
